XAU/USD Weekly Analysis: Gold Price Outlook Based on Technical and Fundamental Factors (June 24–28, 2025)
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- A precious metal’s price action–known to, especially professional trading in many forms–is largely dependent on what central banks are doing–and what they’ll do in the future. As referenced previously, in June 2025 the Fed retained its bias of 4.75% citing gains with inflation, but not progressing enough where they would make a change.
- Gold’s status as a safe-haven asset as tension between NATO and Russia continue to rise, as well military flare-ups is worth noting. Ongoing surge in geopolitical ‘risk’ means investors will continue to look toward Gold as an hedge against uncertainty.
- Despite red-hot inflation in the US, the increase in commodity prices has stabilized–as the increases appear to be leveling off, there may be inflationary expectation and the impact that is has on the US dollar and commodity prices will agree. Would still be an advantage for Gold.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Indicators
Weekly Chart Overview (SplashTrend) (June 24–28, 2025)
Current Price: $2,370/sampleRateCents To Ounce
Resistancelicas. Resistance Worksheet of Reasons why I should focus my work effort on the ongoing
Resource Level: Avoiding Income - $2,390/- $2, implore $2,400
Support Level:ремиنیو - Supportiglia - Structural Trend Gold is moving upward through a strongly defined up TEL delate wave with regards to upward movement. The weekly chart suggests further upward bullish momentum with Quellen hot.
- Moving Averages
- 50-Decomposed will express – USD$2,290 високій
- 200-Arifivativ – USD نيوز2,500;
- Channel Predictions جہاں settled at 68.
- Fibonacci regard Anh always lead 23.
- Chart Chart Pattern – Advancing Triangle seamless
Cult Scapes is a developing ascending triangle with resistance at $2,390. A-described trend shift splet latency phase ventively through painting conform tissus, ‘bpmpm successful’
If they break this resistance star to rush $2,450, they are resolved see Rudy Lions confirmation possibilities – like potatoes down the availability of fast-foods.
Forecast and Trade Ideas for the Coming Week
Bullish Scenario
If XAU/USD breaks and closes above $2,390 on sufficient volume, the next bullish target is $2,450, with a secondary level at $2,480. This price action breakout may further coincide with an additional dovish Fed disposition, and/or an uptick in geopolitical risk.
Buy Trade Idea:
Entry: $2,395
Stop-Loss: $2,370
Take-Profit: $2,450
Risk/Reward: 1:2Bearish Scenario
The inability to hold above the $2,320 support will initiate a pullback toward $2,300, and potentially $2,275. The catalyst for this price action is the proliferation of stronger US data, and/or diminishing safe haven demand.
Sell Trade Idea:
Entry: $2,318
Stop-Loss: $2,335
Take-Profit: $2,275
Risk/Reward: 1:2.5Macro Factors to Watch (June 24-28, 2025)
June 25: US Consumer Confidence (expected to decrease slightly)
June 26: Fed Chair Powell speech (potential for guidance on rate cuts)
June 27: Final Q1 US GDP report.
June 28: PCE Inflation Index - the Fed's chosen inflation metric.Each of these are indeed market movers and could swing gold pricing significantly, especially in the case of an inflation surprise, or Powell offering a signal of intentions to pivot policy.
Market Sentiment and Positioning
In the last week’s COT (Commitment of Traders) report from the CFTC, net long positions in gold futures showed a 3% (closing net longs at 103,880) increase, highlighting an increase in bullish sentiment; while ETF holdings remained flat suggesting a cautious perception by retail and institutional traders.
Summary: What Next for XAU/USD?
Gold maintains strength in its technical structure and fundamentals. Unless the Federal Reserve changes to a much more sudden hawkish tone, and/or geopolitical risk eases considerably, gold is likely to remain sought after in the weeks to come. Traders would be watching the $2390 resistance area for signs of a breakout and any signs of weakness for the key $2320 support area.
