USD/CHF Weekly Forecast (July 1–7, 2025): Will the Dollar Sustain Its Strength?
Introduction
The USD/CHF is regarded as one of the most stable and most traded currency pairs in Forex markets today – the US Dollar versus the Swiss Franc. This week (July 1 – July 7, 2025), traders are focusing on economic indicators, central bank rhetoric, and technical factors to gauge where this pair might go next. Let’s go over the major factors before giving a complete outlook.
Fundamentals
- US Dollar
The US Dollar continues to show strength as hawkish expectations are fueling up over the Fed. They kept its policy rate at 5.50% in June. Still, they gave a hint that if inflation data continues to be sticky, the Fed may raise rates. This week, all traders are anxiously awaiting the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday, July 5th.
Expected NFP (July 5th): 180K jobs
Previous NFP: 205K jobs
A surprise strong number could fuel the USD/CHF higher to the upside. Consensus is for that 180K number mentioned above. If it strong, it will reinforce expected tightening as if the Fed were to extend its tightening into Q3 2025.
- Swiss Franc
As a reminder, in June the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates (25 bps from 1.50% to 1.25%). This was a surprise for the market, as they cited weakness in inflation, and very weak economic growth. This cut has added pressure for the Franc and shifted USD/CHF upward.
Swiss CPI (July 3rd): Important for the inflation outlook
Technical Analysis
On July 1, 2025, USD/CHF is trading near the 0.9150 area, recovering from last week’s low of 0.9020. The pair has moved above a downward slanted descending triangle, and the most recent bullish momentum confirms this breakout.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 0.9200, 0.9250.
Support: 0.9100, 0.9050.Moving Averages;
50 Day EMA: 0.9105 (currently price trading above = bullish).
200 Day EMA: 0.9023 (long term support zone).RSI:
Current RSI (14): 62 — displaying bullish strength but has not yet shown overbought status.MACD:
Bullish crossover is supportive of the upward momentum.Chart Pattern;
The pair traded into a bullish flag situated on the 4H chart, suggesting continuation towards the 0.9250 level if bullish continues.Key Upcoming Events
Date Event Impact on USD/CHF
2nd July US ISM Manufacturing PMI Moderate
3rd July Swiss CPI YoY High
4th July US Independence Day (Low Liquidity) Low
5th July US NFP High
Traders can expect volatility around the Swiss CPI and NFP numbers. Both of these events could produce considerable directional moves in USD/CHF.
Weekly Forecast Summary
Bullish Outlook: Fundamentals continue to favor strength in the US Dollar in light of potential Fed tightening while SNB remains dovish. Technically USD/CHF has broken through resistance and is now looking to test new highs.
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Trigger: Strong US NFP + Weak Swiss CPI
Target: 0.9250-0.9300
Scenario 2: Pullback and Consolidation
Trigger: Mixed US Data + Swiss inflation surprise
Target: 0.9050-0.9100 range
Scenario 3: Bearish Reversal (unlikely)
Trigger: disastrous NFP + Hawkish SNB surprise
Target 0.8950 and below
Trading Plan (This Week)
Swing Trade Set-Up:
Entry: Long at 0.9120-0.9140
Stop Loss: 0.9070
Take Profit: 0.9250Day Trading Idea:
Look for reaction at 0.9200 especially if it breaks on strong NFP. If it breaks momentum will likely be north and you may be able to scalp toward 0.9250.Risk Areas to Monitor
US Election-related Political Tensions: there may be some volatility in USD due to political Tensions as the US heads into the 2025 elections.
Potential SNB Surprise Intervention: unlikely this week, but this can happen when we see extreme weakness in the franc.
Ongoing Geopolitical Problems: should there be breaking news from the eurozone or if global tensions escalate, the need to seek safe haven and protection with the CHF could see a move.Final Thoughts
This week (July 1st – July 7th 2025), it looks like USD/CHF will continue its bullish sentiment if the US economic data, especially NFP, continues to look strong. Looking at the SNB in a dovish stance and a Fed that is still hawkish, it does seem to indicate that we could break higher toward the 0.9250 level but still be cautious as economic releases and any sudden change in market sentiment can easily influence price action.
If you are trading for a short timeframe or trading for the long term, be on the lookout for Swiss inflation data and US jobs data, these are the catalyst that will influence the USD/CHF this week.
