USD/CHF Weekly Forecast: Technical and Fundamental Analysis (June 17–21, 2025)
Overview
The USD/CHF currency pair represents the US dollar (USD) relative to the Swiss franc (CHF) and has historically been considered to be a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty.
For the week of June 17-21, 2025, traders are paying close attention to USD/CHF as US inflation data rises along with geopolitical tensions globally. The following are completely unique analysis of the USD/CHF using technical indicators and fundamental indicators that could lead to forecasting price direction.
Fundamentals: USD/CHF
- US Economic Indicators
US CPI Data Released for June 13: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% for month, just below expectations; this suggests inflation is slowing which weakens the argument for additional Fed rate increases.
Sentiment from the Federal Reserve: Last weeks FOMC meeting was notably cautious. Fed Chair Powell noted a data dependent pathway forward which may limit USD strength.
- Swiss Economic Environment
Monetary Policy from the SNB: We expect the SNB to remain unchanged
with monetary policy focus more on currency strength and export activity.
Safe Haven Demand: CHF is benefiting from heightened tensions
with Russia and NATO allies along with renewed instability and violence in the Middle East
that could support a safe haven status.
- Risk Sentiment
There was weakness in global equity markets last week, and a lessened risk appetite may support CHF.
Technical Analysis: USD/CHF
Current Price: 0.8880 (as at June 17, 2025, opening price)
- Trend Overview The pair has traded in a downward channel for the last two weeks, with resistance around 0.8950 and support around 0.8820. Price action is creating lower highs and lower lows, which suggests a continuation in the downtrend.
- Moving Averages 50-day SMA: 0.8920, resistance zone 200-day SMA: 0.9010 long-term resistance Current price is below both SMA so the trend remains valid in this bearish structure.
- Critical Support & Resistance
Level Type Description
0.8820 Support Weekly support, last week’s low
0.8880 Pivot Current price area
0.8950 Resistance Recent swing high
0.9010 Resistance 200 day SMA level - RSI/MACD RSI (14): 43 – slight bearish momentum; not oversold MACD: Bearish crossover below Signal Line; confirms further downside
Weekly USD/CHF Forecast
Based on both technical and fundamental observation, we believe USD/CHF is going to remain under mild pressure this week.
We expect the downside to continue with bearish sentiment likely to remain unless a major economic surprise in the US occurs.
Forecast Range:
Bearish: 0.8820 (support) would be tested again if risk-off increases.
Bullish reversal: If the USD rebounds from positive economic data (e.g. large jobless claims), 0.8950 could be tested again on a bounce.
Base Case: The pair is likely be in consolidation between the 0.8830 - 0.8900 range for most of the week.Trading Tips
Sell on Rally: On a rally (0.8950 is a tentative resist area) you could combination short positions and tight stops.
Scalp off support missing!: If we hit 0.8820 or thereabouts look for price rejection - bounce/rejection scalp.
Watch for USD DATA: Jobless claims, housing starts (due mid-week) could be highest influences for unexpected volatility.Conclusion
The USD/CHF pair looks likely to trend lower or consolidate this week as a foundation of fundamental pressure on the USD continues with an uptick in demand for CHF as a safe haven.
Technical analysis supports the suggested bearish direction with downside potential unless economic data surprises to the upside during the session. Remember, always protect risk and keep up with economic shifts in real-time!
