USD/CAD Analysis 2025: Technical and Fundamental Overview
to a favorable exchange rate that has made Canadian goods and commodities cheaper for foreign consumers.
- Geographic Proximity and Trade Relations:
The geographical proximity of the two nations is an important factor for forecasters to keep in mind. Borders mean a smaller area to export and consider distribution transportation costs upon importing/exporting goods. At the same time, the United States and Canada have been trading partners for many years. There are many similarities between the economies, and with different monetary policies in play, it may present short- to medium-term opportunities for scalpers and traders. - Currency Demand and Value:
International demand for currency also plays a role in value fluctuations. A currency is likely to have a better chance of trading at consistent prices when there is a demand for that currency, and subsequently, if a nation can export goods or services reliably to support that value. In regards to currently exporting and trading goods, economic growth allow item for production increases, and concurrently, weak demand for Canadian products means lackluster currency demand. Even with the well-established supply and demand factors that drive currency trading, it is important to consider the overall geopolitical, economic policies, and currency correlation factors.
- Geopolitical and Market sentiment
a. Trade Discord between he US and Canada
Trade issues surrounding lumber tariffs have been responsible for some volatility in USD/CAD. However, both countries are still cooperative when it comes to energy and the automotive space.
b. Global Risk Sentiment
Risk-on sentiment surrounding prospects of global equity markets supports the CAD. However, any geopolitical tensions that get out of hand (i.e. Ukraine and/or tensions concerning the Middle East) that leads to a flight-to-safety scenario would likely support the USD.
- Weekly Forecast (June 30 – July 5, 2025) Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish Expected Range: 1.3470 – 1.3680 Suggested Strategy to implement:
Sell near resistance at 1.3670 with a stop-loss above 1.3715 Target 1.3520 initially then 1.3400 if bearish trend strengthens - Conclusion: What to Watch in Q3 2025
As we get deeper into Q3 2025 traders should be cognizant of:
The next BoC rate announcement
US labor market and inflation numbers
The going up-and-down of WTI Crude Oil prices
North American trade negotiations and tariffsStaying on top of these elements will provide more clarity around what will be the next major move in USD/CAD.
- Geopolitical and Market sentiment
a. Trade Discord between he US and Canada
Trade issues surrounding lumber tariffs have been responsible for some volatility in USD/CAD. However, both countries are still cooperative when it comes to energy and the automotive space.
b. Global Risk Sentiment
Risk-on sentiment surrounding prospects of global equity markets supports the CAD. However, any geopolitical tensions that get out of hand (i.e. Ukraine and/or tensions concerning the Middle East) that leads to a flight-to-safety scenario would likely support the USD.
- Weekly Forecast (June 30 – July 5, 2025) Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish Expected Range: 1.3470 – 1.3680 Suggested Strategy to implement:
Sell near resistance at 1.3670 with a stop-loss above 1.3715 Target 1.3520 initially then 1.3400 if bearish trend strengthens - Conclusion: What to Watch in Q3 2025
As we get deeper into Q3 2025 traders should be cognizant of:
The next BoC rate announcement
US labor market and inflation numbers
The going up-and-down of WTI Crude Oil prices
North American trade negotiations and tariffsStaying on top of these elements will provide more clarity around what will be the next major move in USD/CAD.
- Geopolitical and Market sentiment
a. Trade Discord between he US and Canada
Trade issues surrounding lumber tariffs have been responsible for some volatility in USD/CAD. However, both countries are still cooperative when it comes to energy and the automotive space.
b. Global Risk Sentiment
Risk-on sentiment surrounding prospects of global equity markets supports the CAD. However, any geopolitical tensions that get out of hand (i.e. Ukraine and/or tensions concerning the Middle East) that leads to a flight-to-safety scenario would likely support the USD.
- Weekly Forecast (June 30 – July 5, 2025) Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish Expected Range: 1.3470 – 1.3680 Suggested Strategy to implement:
Sell near resistance at 1.3670 with a stop-loss above 1.3715 Target 1.3520 initially then 1.3400 if bearish trend strengthens - Conclusion: What to Watch in Q3 2025
As we get deeper into Q3 2025 traders should be cognizant of:
The next BoC rate announcement
US labor market and inflation numbers
The going up-and-down of WTI Crude Oil prices
North American trade negotiations and tariffsStaying on top of these elements will provide more clarity around what will be the next major move in USD/CAD.
