NZD/USD Weekly Outlook (June 16–21, 2025)
- The NZD/USD currency pair is displaying signs of both strength and weakness as we approach the middle of June 2025 and traders weigh global risk sentiment, US interest rate policy, and New Zealand’s economic situation.
- This article will discuss the fundamental and technical outlook for NZD/USD during the week of June 16-21.
- 🧾 Fundamental Analysis 1. New Zealand Data
GDP Growth: New Zealand's GDP for Q1 2025 was 0.4%, slightly higher than market expectations, which is positive for the NZD and shows resilience despite the headwinds from around the globe.
RBNZ Policy Direction: The RBNZ is expected to be on hold at present, with inflation slowly moving back toward the target 2% level. Increasingly, the likelihood of the next move being a rate cut later this year is also being discussed.- US Economic Factors Federal Reserve Meeting: The June 2025 meeting confirmed the Fed will continue to rely on data when making judgements moving forward. Personal consumer inflation remains fairly sticky, and rate cuts are just not around the corner. US Jobless Claims and CPI: Some mixed data releases from last week somewhat supported the USD. This week, headline CPI released at 3.2% (YoY), while jobless claims ticked slightly higher and added some uncertainty.
- Risk Sentiment The NZD usually performs in line with global risk appetite. Ongoing issues such as softening demand from China and geopolitical factors (Israel/Iran) negatively impact the current appetite for risk and that could mean a weaker NZD.
Technical Analysis
Current Price: 0.6105 (June 16, 2025)
Daily charts
Support Levels:
0.6080 - Minor support
0.6025 - Key horizontal support
Resistance Levels:
0.6150 - Psychological Resistance
0.6200 - Strong multi-week resistance
Indicators:
Moving Averages: The 50 day MA is below the 200 day, pointing to a longer term bearish bias.
Note on the MA's: The proper usage of moving averages is to establish directionality bears miss when they just look at the moving average; it is so critical to properly index time, consecutive, order, weekly pivots, volatility, open range, 50 day pivots because the moving averages could change minutely intra day; also there are strategies largely used in 2023 based on moving averages and even short term horizontal pivots to crack the trade. Remember - Moving Averages, while cmmonly relied upon, are like a hammer, and should be used to some specific use; they could be easily incorrectly indexed, framed, held, or entirely relied upon.
RSI - Relative Strength Index - Currently at 48 - and indicates that we may still see bearish momentum, or experience bearish momentum; currently this is mildly bearish.
MACD - The MACD histogram is flat but below 0; and suggests that momentum would be lack luster.
Chart Analysis - NZD/USD is trading within the bounds of a symmetrical triangle chart pattern - indicating the expectation of consolidation with an eventual breakout. Weekly forecast & predicted price range
Forecasted Price Range: 0.6025-0.6200
Bullish Scenario: If the Fed turns dovish in the coming week, and the USD weakens (other global equities advance); NZD/USD could break above 0.6150 and test the upper boundary of 0.6200.
Bearish Scenario: If the data coming out of the US continues to beat expectations and risk appetite is fading then consider that NZD/USD could retest a lower range and fall to 0.6080 or even down to 0.6025. Key Events – at a glance this week
Date Event Impact
June 18 NZ GDT Dairy Auction Medium (NZD)
June 19 Fed Chair Powell Speech High (USD)
June 20 US Initial Jobless Claims Medium (USD)
June 21 NZ Trade Balance Medium (NZD)
Final Remarks
All NZD/USD traders should be mindful that we are possibly on the cusp of a breakout to finish the current consolidation.
If the fundamentals lean slightly to the USD, however – if risk can improve then NZD may come to life.
