GBP/JPY Weekly Analysis: Technical and Fundamental Outlook (June 24–28, 2025)
Introduction
The GBP/JPY is one of the most highly traded cross-currency pairs in the forex marketplace, primarily due to the volatility of the pair and its tendency to respond to important UK and Japan economic data. As we move into the June 2025 trading week (June 24 – 28), traders and investors are paying close attention to important technical levels and macroeconomic data coming from the UK and Japan. The purpose of this article is to analyze the current technical trends, fundamental drivers, and make a forecast for the pair this week.
Fundamental Analysis of GBP/JPY (June 2025)
UK Economic Outlook
The British Pound will remain supported by all of the speculation surrounding any future rate cuts from The Bank of England (BoE). Over the last several months, inflation in the UK has shown indications of slowing down, however, wage increases remain elevated and complicates the BoE’s decision making with regards to monetary policy.
The most important data released last week:
UK CPI YoY - 3.1% - slightly above the BoE's inflation target of 2%.
UK Unemployed Rate - 4.3% - Up from 3.9%, which is certainly indicating a softening in the labour market.
Retail Sales -!0.4% - Lastly, retail sales are down, suggesting consumer spending is weaker.The mixed signals indicated that a rate cut may, at some stage as we move through Q3, but this doesn’t appear to be an immediate risk. Accordingly, we expect the GBP remains broadly unchanged against the other major currencies, including the Yen.
Japan Economic Outlook
Japan is also dealing with the problems of persistent deflationary
CAM: GBP/JPY Technical Analysis Plan (Daily & Weekly Chart)
Price Summary
Current Price (June 23, 2025): GBP/JPY = 202.45
High for the past 52-weeks: 204.75
Low for the past 52-weeks: 176.20Price Support Resistance Levels
Level Price Category
R2 204.70 Major resistance (2024 high)
R1 203.25 Resistance (weekly)
Pivot 202.00 Psychological level
S1 200.50 Support (weekly)
S2 198.80 Support (major)
Moving Averages
50-day EMA: 201.85 (supportive)
200-day EMA: 194.60 (longer term bullish trend)RSI & Momentum Indicators
RSI (14 period): 64 - slightly overbought but not extreme
MACD: Bullish crossover remains active; momentum is still pointed upwardChart Setup: Bullish Continuation
GBP/JPY has broken above a bullish flag pattern on the daily chart. The breakout above 200.00 creates a higher high and continues to build a proper bullish trend channel.
Weekly Plan / Forecast for GBP/JPY (June 24-28, 2025)
A forecast below is created via our unique macro data, chart patterns and market fundamentals.
Bullish Scenario
Looking at the potential bullish scenario if the UK data continues to show stability and Japanese inflation continues to be disappointing.
Target 1: 203.25
Target 2: 204.70
Above 204.70 the price could push toward 206.00 by early July.Bearish Scenario
On the other hand should some hawkish surprise unfold from the BoJ’s comments or some indicating a slowdown in UK economic data.
Downside Target 1: 200.50
Downside Target 2: 198.80
If a break below 198.80 is reached this could invalidate this bullish structure.Important Upcoming Events
Date Event Importance
June 25 BoE Governor Speech High
June 26 UK GDP Monthly Estimate High
June 27 Japan Industrial Production Medium
June 28 Japan Tokyo CPI High
Traders will want to pay close attention to the Tokyo CPI print on Friday, because if there is any upside surprise, the Yen could strengthen creating a slight correction on GBP/JPY in the short-term!
Trading Idea:
Long Set-up:
Entry: 201.80 – 202.10
Stop Loss: Below 200.40
Target: 204.00 – 204.70
Risk/Reward: 1:2+
Short Set-up (Countertrend):
Entry: 204.50 (rejection near resistance)
Stop Loss: Above 205.20
Target: 202.00 – 200.50
NOTE: Ensure to use tight risk management as per your strategy, and always confirm any entries via candlestick patterns or momentum switches.Summary
As long as GBP/JPY is in strong bullish trend supported by a dovish BOJ and relative stability in UK fundamentals we have no reason to exit our positions. Now heading into the week of June 24-28, 2025, the current price action demonstrates strong potential for further moves higher if resistance levels can be broken. However, macroeconomic events in Japan will also create short-term volatility.
For traders, one key level of interest for the medium-term remains at the 200.00 level for both psychological and technical support. Continue to monitor potential upside continuation on GBP/JPY on sustained moves above 204.00 and for maximum target upside if price action cannot hold above 200.50 we can assume a pullback can happen.
