CAD/CHF Analysis 2025: Trends, Drivers, and Forecast
- The CAD/CHF currency pair, which involves Canadian Dollar (CAD) and Swiss Franc (CHF) is a less traded pair but nevertheless a noteworthy pair for Forex traders who want to diversify their portfolios.
- The unique set of influences on the CAD/CHF have been responsible for its trading characteristics as of 2025.
- The development of this currency pair is being affected and created by economic data, central bank decisions, commodity prices and alteration in global risk perception.
- Fundamental Analysis
The SNB remains very ultra-conservative regarding their monetary policy, generally keeping interest rates somewhere at or near zero for years.
In early 2025, they made it clear that whether European inflation goes up or down, they will have limited interest rate changes, which highlights the CHF’s safe haven asset position among global worries.
- Oil Prices and the Canadian Economy
CAD is significantly affected by the crude oil price, given the relationship to crude oil, as Canada is a major world exporter of oil. Generally, since the start of 2025, WTI crude has oscillated around the $70 – $90/barrel number, which offers a moderate boost to CAD when oil prices are on the higher end. When oil prices are on the upswing, it typically improves CAD’s value against CHF.
- Risk Sentiment
Traditional safe haven currencies like the CHF generally appreciate especially in cases of elevated geopolitical tension in (e.g. Israel vs Palestine etc.).
Technical Analysis (As of Q2 2025)
Trend: Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Resistance: 0.6750
Support: 0.6580
50-day MA: trending higher, bullish momentum above the 0.6640 level
RSI: close to 60 with space to move up before entering overbought territoryIf any break above the 0.6750 resistance, we could see further upside extension to 0.6850, while losing the 0.6580 support could see a further bearish leg, potentially moving to 0.6500.
CAD/CHF Forecasts
Short-Term (1-3 months)
Assuming we see a modest recovery in oil prices and Canadian inflation stays steady, CAD/CHF should continue to be range bound between 0.6600-0.6750 unless there is significance from the SNB or any shocks outside the market.
Long-Term (6-12 months)If oil prices continue to recover, and Canadian economic data remains strong, we could begin to see CAD price levels above 0.6800.
However, in the instance of continued global uncertainty, we could also see some sort of shift from investor to CHF.
Trading Tips
- Check Oil Inventory Reports: Crude data is directly related to CAD behaviour.
- Watch BoC (Bank of Canada) and SNB (Swiss National Bank) Meeting Minutes: Policy changes can create lots of volatility.
- Be Careful with Technical Indicators: There are always RSI and moving averages for trend strength confirmation.
- Risk Management: Because of CHF’s safe-haven status, it can move quickly if global “bad news” happens.
Final Thoughts
While CAD/CHF will not be as volatile as most major pairs, it is a profitable opportunity
for patient traders with a macroeconomic and commodity flow perspective.
In 2025, the trend of energy, the trends of the central banks, and changes in risk sentiment will move this cross.
