GBP/JPY Weekly Analysis: Technical, Fundamental & Forecast (June 24–28, 2025)
The GBP/JPY pair has experienced extreme volatility in early April as a result of divergences in central bank policy, economic data news releases, and fickle risk tolerance. The article outlines the technical and fundamental analysis for GBP/JPY and provides a price forecast for the week of June 24-28, 2025.
✅ Fundamental Analysis
- Bank of England (BoE) Maintains Cautiously Positive Outlook
The BoE has taken a cautious view of interest rates. Inflation in the UK is not reliable and while it is falling, it is not falling sufficiently for the BoE to seriously believe they are going to cut rates. The lates UK CPI data came in below expectations, at 2.6% YoY, giving the BoE enough of a cushion to sit still on interest rates.
In it’s last monetary policy meeting the BoE maintained a hawkish hold and indicated any cuts in rate potential may not appear until the end of Q3 2025. BoE policy markets have priced only one rate cut for the remainder of the year.
- Bank of Japan Cuts Rates
The Bank of Japan is ultra-dovish. While the BoJ ended its negative interest rate policy in early 2025, the BoJ continues to maintain rates at a low level. Inflation in Japan continues to be weak. Bank of Japan core CPI was 1.2% Year on Year, a long way from the BoJ 2% target.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his intentions for the fragility of the Japanese economy where the economy sees little to no inflation pressures as it adjusts to pandemic realities and global growth.
📊 Technical Analysis
Weekly Chart (June 24–28, 2025):
Current Price: 202.85
Previous Weekly Close: 203.15
Support Levels: 201.70, 199.50, 197.80
Resistance Levels: 204.50, 206.00, 207.80Moving Averages:
50-Day EMA: 200.45 (supporting uptrend)
200-Day EMA: 191.30 (a true bullish baseline)RSI:
RSI (14): 64 – Approaching overbought territory and seeing much upside.MACD:
The MACD line sits above the signal line, indicating motivation, but the signal line is above the histogram bars – it is starting to flatten and indicating a lack of upward deception. There may be a little short term consolidation.Price Action Summary:
GBP/JPY saw a slight pullback from its 16 year high last week, after failing to it above the resistance level of 204.50. The underlying daily chart shows a bearish rejection wick ( this is a strong sell signal) but the chart shows some support establishing above 201.70.
A movement up and above 204.50 would confirm the next step in bullish momentum – while a close below 201.70 may indicate near term weakness.
📅 Economic Events to Watch (June 24–28, 2025)
Date Event Forecast
June 25 UK Retail Sales MoM 1.9%
June 25 BoJ Consensus of Opinions Neutral
June 26 UK BoE Governor Bailey Speaks Hawkish
June 27 Japan Industrial Production MoM -0.4%
June 28 UK GDP Final Q1 0.3%The events that will have the most impact will most likely be the UK GDP and Retail Sales as they will provide a leading signal on the UK economy’s resilience.
🔮 What to Expect from GBP/JPY (June 24–28, 2025)
Bullish Scenario
Provided risk sentiment remains stable and UK data exceeds expectations, GBP/JPY would break above 204.50. If GBP/JPY breaks through 204.50, GBP/JPY could be targeting 206.00 and up to 207.80 if the BoE maintains its hawkish posture.
Bearish Scenario
If UK data fails to live up to expectations, or if geopolitical tension increases, GBP/JPY could be on a pullback targeting 201.70. If GBP/JPY breaks below 201.70, GBP/JPY could be targeting 199.50 where the 50-day EMA will be defining support.
Neutral Bias
If markets wait for stronger catalysts or disappointing economic surprises, GBP/JPY may go sideways between 201.70 – 204.50.
📌 Conclusion
The GBP/JPY is in a medium-to-long-term uptrend as the divergence between the BoE-BoJ policies fuels the ascent. In the shorter-term, we may see volatility even outside of any macroeconomic data surprises, absolutely linked to global risk sentiment, like recent developments in the Middle East.
